By contrast, the City’s neighboring jurisdictions of Arlington and Fairfax are facing a much more dire situation, even before the impact of the Trump slash and burn federal worker firings have been assessed. The Arlington County board voted this week to advertise a 1 cent increase in tax rate over what its manager Mark Schwartz proposed, and in Fairfax County, while manager Bryan Hill has advanced a budget a 1.5 cent increase, that includes the proposed cuts in the county school budget that are draconian.  

For Falls Church, Mayor Hardi said at Monday’s Falls Church City Council meeting that it was important to emphasize how the recent years’ strong commercial development gains in the City will make matters relatively smooth for the City taxpayers, with prospects for 5.9 percent growth in both the City and school budgets to go along with the 2.5 cent rate decrease. Sixty-five percent of the budget growth is coming from real estate, and half of that is from new construction, she noted.

While Council member Erin Flynn cautioned that the new growth comes with added costs, those present were told that most of the costs of infrastructure improvements, such as for solid waste, had become necessary prior to the latest spate of development.

One of the biggest beneficiaries of the growth premium is the City schools. Superintendent Dr. Peter Noonan told the Council’s budget and finance committee last week that they will do well with a projected 5.9 percent budget increase, even though that would be slightly less than the amount Noonan said would be needed last month.

Noonan praised the “revenue sharing” agreement that has smoothed over budget deliberations in the City since being implemented in recent years. It means that the hikes for both the City side and school budgets are projected to be the same 5.9 percent. That assurance for the City schools is not something the City’s neighboring school systems will be able to enjoy, he noted, forecasting that overall revenue prospects for Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria will be “nothing close to” Falls Church’s, with the result that the school budgets in those places will face serious cuts,” he predicted.

Falls Church City Manager Wyatt Shields said that while tax rates around the region will be challenging, with the 1 cent rate increase projected for Arlington and a 1.5 cent increase for Fairfax being proposed, they are  at the expense of big cuts for their schools. “Watch what happens in Arlington and Fairfax” to their school budgets, he intoned, “They’ll get slammed.”

“We’d be in big trouble without the development growth we’ve had,” added Council member Laura Downs. Mayor Hardi expressed concern that the Council needs to plan ahead for next year, however, when a return to more normal growth at about 3 percent can be expected. “We’re not going to have this rate of growth every year going forward,” she said.

But the uncertainty factor looms over all, given the federal layoffs and the fact that for every federal employee job, as for every federal employee job, three to four other jobs are impacted, Sluggish growth in the City’s meals tax in the first six months of the current fiscal year despite the opening of a spate of new restaurants is also concerning, it was noted.

As for the proposed fiscal year 2026 budget for Fairfax County released last week by County Executive Hill, it includes an extra $118.6 million for the county schools, far short of the $268 million increase in funding that Fairfax Schools’ Superintendent Michelle Reid says is needed to cover rising costs, including a 7% teacher pay raise.

Fairfax Schools are facing a $121 million shortfall, plus the potential loss of $168 million in federal aid under new Trump administration policies that tie school funding to compliance with executive orders targeting transgender athletes and diversity programs.

County Executive Hill, in his budget message to the joint meeting of the County Board and School Board this week, said, “The budget release comes amidst a time of great uncertainty for our region, as the new presidential administration has signalled its desire, and begun taking actions, to significantly reshape the federal government, including its workforce. Fairfax County is home to more than 50,000 federal workers, and even more workers connected to businesses that contract with the federal government,”

He added, “Already, we are seeing workers being laid off or furloughed in the greater Washington area, with threats of significant layoffs of federal workers and terminations of federal leases.” But he said his proposed budget was mostly developed before the new administration took office, and assumes the continuation of economic conditions at that time. “It will be imperative for us to continually monitor actions at the federal level to determine is any updates to our revenue projections are necessary.”