by David Hoffman

The Potomac River flows eastward to the sea. It marks the riverine boundary between the political capital of the nation  – Washington DC – and the equally political Commonwealth of Virginia, which only just concluded its own electoral rites last month. 

That’s when a massive wave washed away several dozen Republican candidates at least, and turned Virgina an historic deep hue of Blue.

Sometimes to Northern Virginia political observers, the river seems much more like a vast ocean. But while there are certain clear differences, there are of course also many common denominators, between voters and their political behavior, in DC as well as Virginia.

And yes Virginia there is a DC government election next year. In brightest Blue DC, that’s the Democratic primary in June. 

So observers in Falls Church and also in neighboring Arlington and Fairfax counties and Alexandria City would do well to keep a sharp eye on what’s shaping up already, at the close of 2025, as a major-league and possibly nearly epic battle over electing the District’s next mayor, especially because now next year will be an election – for the first time in 20 years – when no incumbent’s name will appear on the ballot.  

That turnabout began to take shape just a little over a week ago, when three-term Mayor Muriel Bowser suddenly announced she would not run for a fourth term after all!  

Cue explosive excitement in the intensely ambitious and deeply suspicious world of DC’s political class.  Now that all bets are suddenly off, the gloves are already coming off too. 

Already emerging are just two candidates – each clearly with significant signs of surging grassroots momentum, and the campaign policy chops, and the financial clout – that they each, although in strikingly different ways, can credibly claim to occupy the strategic high ground for an election still half a year away. 

They differ enormously. One is the likeliest current frontrunner, the highly popular and indeed outspoken progressive – and as such, a well known commodity – the former prosecutor and DC Assistant Attorney General, and since 2020, the two-term Ward 4 DC Councilwoman, Janeese Lewis George.  The other is a brash but highly likeable outsider – a retired U.S. Army tank corps officer and a longtime DC-based investment advisor and sharp-eyed developer – who has put together a strong team of enthusiastic backers and a growing corps of neighborhood activists, Gary Goodweather.

So far just these two are seen by some observers to currently command that mysterious mojo – of campaign momentum and the elusive yet gutsy pixie dust of charisma, and also the street smarts and organizational moxie to pull off a winning campaign. Janeese and Gary, in other words are viewed, if only as of now,  as the two most likely serious candidates to be able to challenge each other next June as rival claimants to become the District’s next mayor.

Yet even so, as they each begin to step forward at year’s end ready to begin their emerging campaigns, a third possible major candidate stands just offstage clearly considering entering the campaign himself, At Large DC Councilman Kenyan McDuffie, clearly a major Establishment favorite.

Key observers predict that McDuffie will be an extremely well-heeled insider, the mayoral challenger from the financial fatcats, the real estate tycoons and various other elites backed by the monetary muscle of the deep pocketed Washington Board of Trade – in other words this campaign’s highly likely Total Opposite of New York City’s upset winning outsider democratic socialist Mayor-Elect Zofran Momdani.