There’s a debate playing out in Virginia right now about the true state of our economy. If you believe Governor Glenn Youngkin, everything is fine: Virginia is outperforming national averages in the job market, our revenue collections are above projections, and the Commonwealth’s financial picture is solid. But if you believe the signs that economists, analysts, and even bipartisan legislators are pointing to, we’re in for a heap of trouble.

The truth is both perspectives can be true. And that’s the real challenge when you’re cruising at 70 miles an hour down the interstate, everything can look smooth until you spot a bright sign flashing: “Accident Ahead.” Most of us, faced with that warning, take our foot off the gas, check the GPS, and prepare for what’s coming. The question is whether we’ll do that as a Commonwealth or whether we’ll plow forward at full speed, insisting the road is clear until it’s too late.

Last week, the Emergency Committee on Impacts of Federal Workforce and Funding Reductions held its final meeting and issued a sobering report. After months of testimony, data collection, and economic analysis, the conclusion was clear: Virginia is on a collision course if Congress continues cutting federal spending at this pace.

Nearly a quarter of our Virginia’s economy is tied to federal spending, more than any other state. When Washington makes deep cuts, Virginia feels the pain first and worst. We’ve already lost more than 11,000 federal jobs, with another 10,000 at risk. These statistics represent families who’ve lost paychecks, small businesses who’ve lost customers, and local governments who’ve lost tax revenue for schools and public safety.

The threats go well beyond the workforce. The President signed H.R. 1, allowing federal premium tax credits to expire at the end of 2025, spiking health insurance costs for more than 200,000 Virginia families with many seeing premiums more than double. Replacing those credits would cost the state $250 million annually, money that could otherwise fund schools, infrastructure, or job creation.

Food assistance is another area where families will pay more for less. H.R.1 adds $90 million in costs to Virginia in 2027 and $270 million in 2028 just to keep SNAP running. At the same time, it layers on red tape and blocks benefit increases, even as grocery bills climb higher. 

Hospitals are bracing for a $2.1 billion annual loss in federal funding once these cuts take hold. That is enough to push many community and rural hospitals already operating on razor-thin margins to close their doors. Losing a hospital doesn’t just mean losing access to doctors and nurses. It means longer drives in an emergency and reduced healthcare access for entire regions of the Commonwealth.

Education is under the knife too. The U.S. House Appropriations Committee has proposed the deepest cuts in decades, slashing overall federal support for K–12 schools by 27% and Title I by 34%. On top of that, they would claw back $2.6 billion that schools already planned to use. These cuts eliminate programs for English learners, adult education, migrant and homeless students, and teacher training. 

And it’s not just abstract future obligations, but critical current projects. Portsmouth saw $24.2 million for dam repairs evaporate. Richmond lost $12 million for water treatment upgrades. Hampton lost $20 million for climate resilience. Norfolk lost nearly $40 million for an offshore wind logistics park. These weren’t “nice to have” projects. They were urgent, job-creating investments. And now they’re gone.

The Governor would have you believe our current surplus protects us. But that “cushion” is temporary and these costs are ongoing. You can’t build long-term stability on short-term dollars. That’s why the Committee called for transparency from the Youngkin Administration and real-time data so Virginians can see the risks clearly. We also recommended practical protections for workers blindsided by layoffs: the right to break leases they can’t afford, eviction prevention, extended unemployment benefits, and retraining programs. These are common-sense ways to soften the blow when federal cuts land hardest here at home

The Governor may prefer to look away as his term winds down. But Virginians don’t have that luxury. The warning signs are flashing. Our choice is simple: do we slow down, take stock, and adjust course or do we press the accelerator and hope the road really is as clear as it looks right now?

Virginia has always thrived when we planned ahead, diversified our economy, and invested in our people. That’s the road to long-term prosperity. Pretending there’s no accident ahead is not leadership. It’s denial. And Virginians deserve better than that.