A Penny for Your Thoughts 1-8-2026

It was always about oil.  Not regime change.  Not free and fair elections.  Not drug interdiction. Simply oil.  The deadly boat strikes served as a distraction while the Trump Administration honed plans to invade Venezuelan airspace and extract President Nicolas Maduro and his wife to face federal narcoterrorism charges in New York.  Never mind that invasion of another country without Congressional approval is illegal.  Or that, according to many legal experts, the United States violated international law. Donald Trump wanted Venezuela’s oil and used an illegal military invasion and capture of Maduro as his tools. 

Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine’s description of the Caracas assault was as dispassionate as General “Stormin’ Norman” Schwarzkopf’s narration of the 1990 U.S. offensive during Operation Desert Storm. The difference between the two military actions, of course, is that Desert Storm was the outcome of a resolution by the United Nations Security Council and a coalition of UN member countries in reaction to Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. The Venezuela attack had none of those; the United States was the sole aggressor, operating beyond the dicta of federal and international law.   Trump’s actions have been criticized by our allies and enemies alike, and some have requested an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council.  Since the U.S. is a permanent member of the Security Council and has veto power over Council resolutions, it is doubtful that any sanction attempt against the U.S. would be successful.         

Perhaps more troubling than the raid itself is Trump’s press conference declaration that “we’re going to run the country.”  Mr. Trump later expanded his comment to “until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.”   He gave no indication who the “we” might be, although he gestured to the men standing behind him, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, who appeared a bit surprised by his designation.  Without a plan and a time frame for transition, the specter of Vietnam or Afghanistan is a sharp reminder of what could happen with Venezuela. 

Mr. Trump appears to have a slightly more specific plan for the oil, which he touts as “extracting enormous wealth,” supposedly for the people and economy of Venezuela although that was not clear in his comments.  Venezuela has an estimated 300 billion barrels of oil in the Oronoco Valley, but it is heavier crude than Middle Eastern oil and will require different refinery capacity. Rebuilding the pipelines and aging refineries will take many years and billions of dollars of investment before any of that “enormous wealth” is realized, and it’s unclear if American or multinational oil companies are willing to make those investments on their own.  What will it cost American taxpayers?  And how much did the Caracas raid cost the American taxpayers?  Most likely in the tens of millions of dollars.

Nearly 70 years ago, “The Ugly American,” a novel by Eugene Burdick and William Lederer, focused on American diplomacy in Southeast Asia.  It was a blockbuster best seller that highlighted the post-World War II approach to relationships with smaller allies – ignoring local customs, language, and culture in favor of a “my way or the highway” attitude.  Geopolitics during the Cold War (the novel was written pre-Vietnam War) had different fault lines and different personalities, and America’s diplomacy matured considerably in following years. The novel also stimulated President John F. Kennedy’s creation of the Peace Corps and the Agency for International Development, the latter sadly demolished by Mr. Trump.  

Following the Caracas raid, the tone-deafness conveyed in “The Ugly American” appears to be manifest in Mr. Trump himself.  As many Americans face millions of dollars in increased health care premiums, rising grocery prices and housing costs, and job instability, it seems that Trump’s America First agenda simply is “me first,” which surprises few.

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