As we move toward another new year, folks in law and policy-making positions throughout this region are holding their breaths in anticipation of dire conditions due to the Trump administration’s federal and federal contractor layoffs. The data will undoubtedly be ugly as the new year arrives for almost every aspect of the regional economy, and while this region weathered the impact of the Covid pandemic well, it is unlikely it will come out anywhere near as well this time.
In Falls Church, which has the highest percentage of its total workforce employed by the federal government of any jurisdiction around here, the City’s new chief financial officer is playing coy with a range of early forecast options conditional on definitive information that has yet to come in. But he was the first to confess that, as his wife was furloughed during the recent federal government shutdown, that his family stopped going out to eat during that period, not because they didn’t have the money but because uncertainty factors left them worried for the future.
The losers in this scenario are, of course, restaurants and other places that rely on discretionary spending. Now, a five dollar difference in the cost of a burger matters, whereas a year ago it didn’t so much. The first consequence is that folks begin looking for bargains in their dining choices. The second is that they stop going out altogether. Some restaurants can weather slow times better than others for a variety of reasons. But we can anticipate in the coming year that more than a few who came into the business full of optimism and hope will be shuttering.
If there’s anything a jurisdiction can do to forestall this, it should. Tax abatements, incentives for landlords to ease up on rent payment demands, consumer programs like the one run during the pandemic in Falls Church involving purchase of dining cards, and others (please, listen to what the establishment owners have to say, themselves!) can make a huge difference.
But they hold up only so long as there is evidence of some light at the end of the tunnel. On the bright side, Virginia is getting a solid Democratic leadership in Richmond come January, stronger than it has had in many decades, with both houses of the legislature and the governor’s mansion now all in control of that party.
Can the party in such control engineer innovative new programs that will make a major difference for not only retailers, but for homeowners and former federal workers, as well? How much focus will be put on this end, and what can be done?
We know that some important legislation is being readied to deepen the commonwealth’s commitment to equality and justice. But, as it has been wise for Democrats, nationally, to focus on the primary issue of affordability in this period, it remains to be seen how that translates into genuinely helpful policy initiatives.