I’m also going to forgo any sage-like advice because it’s largely a lost cause anyway. Somehow, someway the most researched picks will be torn to shreds after the first weekend, and by April all that money you threw in the pool will be subsidizing the shoe fund of someone who based their selections on the color blue and schools with Catholic ties, like my mother did in 1989. Admittedly, it helped when Seton Hall and Duke made the Final Four that year.
Instead, here are a couple of story lines that will keep things enjoyable after a quartet of double-digit seeds knocks off your Final Four on the opening weekend.
The D.C. Three: After George Washington earned an unlikely berth by winning the Atlantic 10 Tournament, the D.C. area’s three best teams all find themselves in the Big Dance. Georgetown has become a trendy championship pick, lauded by ESPN’s Jay Bilas and Washington Post columnist Mike Wilbon, among others, to win it all after the Hoyas made the Pitt Panthers look like a JV team in the Big East Tournament finale. There’s also a chance that D.C. hoops fans like Mark Plotkin will get to see Georgetown finally mix it up with George Washington in the Sweet 16 if both teams make it that far. For the No. 11 Colonials though, that likely means a pair of upsets over No. 6 Vanderbilt and No. 3 Washington State. It would also be the same path George Mason followed through the first two rounds last season.
Maryland looks to be a wild card. With a talented roster, it has been capable of beating top teams (North Carolina, Duke twice) but also prone to losing games it shouldn’t, like to Miami in the first round of the ACC Tournament.
Consistently Inconsistent: The Virginia majors, UVA and Virginia Tech, have also shown glimpses that they can make a run to the tournament’s second weekend, but have some troublesome losses to their credit as well. If the Cavaliers could play at John Paul Jones Arena (where they have one loss this season), they would be a lock for the Final Four. Away from home however, UVA is pretty pedestrian, losing to non-tourney teams Appalachian State, Utah, Miami (Fl.) and Wake Forest. The Hokies swept UNC in a pair of games, but also lost to Marshall on the road. Of course, inconsistencies mark a number of teams this season, including much of the West bracket: Villanova (losses to Drexel and Xavier), Kentucky (Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi State), Illinois (Xavier, Michigan) and even top seed Kansas (Oral Roberts, DePaul).
Choking Hazard: Kansas and Arizona have developed something of a knack for bringing very talented teams to the tournament, only to take very talented teams home from the tournament after a first or second round loss. The habit, which includes consecutive first-round exits for the Jayhawks in 2005 and 2006, has left opposing coaches with the dilemma of whether to give Bill Self and Lute Olson a post-game hand shake or Heimlich maneuver. An early loss by Kansas this year would be unthinkable, given that a No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1.
After a disappointing, 10-loss regular season, Arizona could make waves with two wins … considering that second W would likely be against reigning champ Florida. And keep in mind that all of the Wildcats’ losses came to NCAA Tournament teams this season. That’s something only Arizona, Ohio State, Memphis and Winthrop can claim. That said, the Wildcats still lost 10 times and are heading into a competition filled with, you guessed it, tournament teams.
‘Arc’-hetypal Upsets: Teams that can shoot well from long range are almost always good for an upset in March. If they’re not balanced inside, thought, they seldom sustain a run to the Final Four. Thus, keep an eye on Davidson (fifth in the country in three-pointers made), Butler (11th) and Vanderbilt (14th), for a first-weekend upset. And look for the more-balanced Notre Dame or Nevada to make a surprise appearance in a regional final.
Clichés are the Key: You know you’ve heard the talking heads dish them out a dime a dozen and about as often as you hear “We’re going to take it one game at a time” in a post game interview. The biggest offenders? “Experience wins championships”; “Defense wins championships”; “Strong back courts win championships.”
With what many consider to be the best freshman class possibly ever, first year players have never been asked to shoulder more en route to the Final Four. The tournament hopes of Texas and Ohio State almost completely rely on uber-freshmen tandems Kevin Durant and D.J. Augustin and Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. Similarly, Notre Dame’s starting center and point guard are freshmen. The Tar Heels start three freshmen. Arizona starts two. Villanova’s best player may be senior Curtis Sumpter, but freshman point guard Scottie Reynolds is their most important one. Likewise, Maryland’s hopes are pinned to frosh playmaker Greivis Vasquez.
Conventional wisdom says teams relying on green players don’t get far this time of year. However, this is not a conventional batch of freshman. While freshman point guards may have struggled in the past, Mike Conley Jr.’s decision making should be fairly simple. “Mike, see that big kid that looks like he’s about 40, down in the low post? Pass it to him.” Same goes for Augustin passing to Durant, though in that case, Durant doesn’t look like he was born at age 20.
If you buy into the defense truism, then you’re going to want to ride Southern Illinois, Michigan State, Georgetown, Illinois, Butler, Wisconsin, Holy Cross and Miami (OH). Those teams account for the third through 10th-ranked teams in scoring defense. If strong back courts are more your speed, UVA and Virginia will serve you well.
Coining a New Cliché: Prepare to hear the phrase “This year’s George Mason” about as often as you heard that “Our Country” ad during football season. In a year of incredible parity, the time could be ripe for another deep run by a mid-major. Of course, none of the Bigs will likely let their guard down this year. Winthrop scared North Carolina, Texas A&M and Wisconsin during the regular season, but faces a Notre Dame team playing its best ball of the year in the first round. UNLV sports an RPI of 10 and has a few people thinking upset. Davidson has the shooters, including Stephen Curry, the son of Dell.
A more interesting storyline might be simply to see how far the Mids can advance despite the Selection Committee. The Committee pitted mid-majors against each other in three instances (No. 7 Nevada vs. No. 10 Creighton, No. 4 Southern Illinois vs. No. 13 Holy Cross and No. 5 Butler vs. No. 12 Old Dominion), while setting up two all-major No. 5 vs. No. 12 games (No. 5 Virginia Tech vs. No. 12 Illinois and No. 5 USC vs. No. 12 Arkansas). Couldn’t they have at least flipped ODU and Arkansas? But maybe it would be too embarrassing if Butler bounced the Razorbacks, whom many think undeserving of the dance card.
Hi, My Name Is … : You’ve heard about Oden and Durant, sure, but Creighton’s Nate Funk (averaging 17.6 points a game for the Blue Jays) could be a name you’ll remember all summer long. Nevada’s Nick Fazekas (who enters this year’s tournament averaging more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game) made a name for himself by carrying Nevada to the Sweet 16 in 2004. Too bad Funk and Fazekas face each other in the first round. Also of note is the aforementioned Stephen Curry (21.2 ppg), as well as Virginia Commonwealth sophomore Eric Maynor (13.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 6.3 apg). Both players came up huge in their conference tournaments.
Texas A&M’s Acie Law IV is far from a no-name, but he shines in the clutch, as has Georgetown’s uber-talented, but underrated Jeff Green, who hit the game-winning shots against Villanova Feb. 17 and Notre Dame in the Big East Tournament. You might have heard of both of these guys already, but they deserve another mention. After all, not every story line in March belongs to Cinderella.