Picking Splinters by Mike Hume

Bring on Baseball '05

In just four short days Major League Baseball will start the process of moving past the steroid controversy that has served as a flame thrower on this winter’s hot stove.

I’ve ranted enough on the steroid issue for the past two weeks, so I’m going to do my part to move on and look on the bright side in the remainder of this column. Consider the following the Picking Splinters 2005 MLB Preview. Everything you need to know about the 2005 season in just 800 short words.

Injuries: Regardless of the steroid issue, health will figure prominently into the post-season hopes of the Yankees and Giants, the two oldest teams in the league. The Red Sox rotation is already banged up with Curt Schilling and Wade Miller on the shelf to start the season, and David Wells is hardly the shining example of healthy living. The Cubs’ chances ride injury-riddled arms of Wood and Prior. Will they ever be healthy again? John Smoltz has looked dominant this Spring, but hasn’t pitched a full season as a starter since undergoing Tommy John surgery. Tim Hudson has dealt with a hip injury for some time now. So goes those two, so go the Braves.

New Acquisitions: How will Pedro adapt to the National League? Carlos Delgado hasn’t hit his weight in Spring Training. Did the Marlins overpay, or will he turn it around to provide the lefty bat their lineup badly needs? Two-thirds of the Yankees’ starting rotation is new (Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright), the Bronx has soured the careers of many a fine pitcher (see Kenny Rogers, Esteban Loaiza, Javier Vazquez, etc.). How will these three adapt? Tied to the injury issue, will Magglio Ordonez lift up the Tigers’ lineup or will his surgically repaired knee give out? Locally, Jose Guillen has always been part of powerful lineups with the Reds and Angels, can he be the focal point for Nationals’ offense this season? If so, that trade could have been a steal.
Surprise teams: Conventional wisdom puts the usual suspects atop the divisions, but watch young teams like Detroit, Cleveland, San Diego, Texas, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, talented teams playing in low-pressure markets. And don’t rule out a run by your Nationals. The talent is there, and while it may not match up with the top teams in the NL, the inspirational move from moribund Montreal to D.C. might provide the spark needed to make a move.

Tight Pennant Races: The Yankees and Red Sox was a given, as it generally is, but the tightest pennant race should unfold before the eyes of Washington, D.C. baseball fans. With the Braves re-armed with Hudson, the Mets spending cash on free agents like Monopoly money, the Marlins boasting a top-notch rotation and monster lineup, the Phillies returning an under-achieving 2004 roster and the Nationals reborn in Washington, the National League East promises to be a dogfight from start to finish. All five of these teams has a chance at the post-season, but smart money will be on the Marlins. I’m predicting a Florida, Atlanta, New York, Washington, Philadelphia finish. With all except the Phils finishing over .500.

Breakout Players: Keep your eye on Jeremy Reed with the Mariners. He batted nearly .400 with the team after being called up following the Freddy Garcia trade last season. Has to be the odds-on favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, with a nod to A’s OF Nick Swisher as well. The Pirates Oliver Perez ought to emerge into superstardom this season as well. If he played on a better team, I’d pick him for the Cy Young, but Pittsburgh is rapidly turning into a place where bad players go to die, and good players wait to be traded at the July 31 deadline. The Pirates have talented players, but ownership’s reluctance to spend has done a number on team morale. In the AL, look for the A’s Rich Harden to rack up 200+ strikeouts and challenge Johan Santana and Randy Johnson for the Cy Young. The Mets 3B David Wright ought to make a splash in the Mets’ re-tooled lineup as well. In D.C. Terrmel Sledge could breakout if given the opportunity, here or elsewhere. Also look for a much-improved season from pitcher Zach Day.

Predictions:

AL Division Winners: Yankees, Twins, Angels. Wild Card: Indians (Just over a Red Sox team whose pitching staff never came around.) Second WC Runner-Up: Tigers. This team will surprise this season. Keep an eye on pitcher Jeremy Bonderman.

NL Division Winners: Marlins, Cardinals, Padres. Wild Card: After losing the NL-East since the first time since Man invented the wheel, the Braves rally to claim the final spot, over a pack that includes the Cubs, Reds, Astros, Mets and a surprising Nationals club. The Giants rapidly plummet out of the race after the team is ravaged by osteoporosis.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Reed, OF, Seattle. (Solid batting eye at top of potent lineup.)

NL Rookie of the Year: Jeff Francis, P, Colorado. (Yes, Colorado.)

AL Cy Young: Randy Johnson, P, New York. (25 wins is a possibility.)

NL Cy Young: John Smoltz, P, Atlanta. (Has the personality to pitch through minor injuries.)

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York. (He’s mad. And he’s good. Bad combination for Red Sox fans.)

NL MVP: Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis. (Barry Bonds’s prolonged absence allows writers to see they should have been voting for Pujols all along.)

Mike Hume may be emailed here.