Falls Church is getting older…quickly. With the oldest median age in the Northern Virginia area at 39.7 years of age, up from 27.8 four decades ago, the City is at the forefront of what is one of the biggest demographic shifts in the Country, the aging of the Baby Boom Generation.
Professor Andrew Carle of George Mason University, an expert on the effects of the Baby Boomers on health care institutions, talked with the News-Press last week about the dynamic of Boomer aging and the impact it will have on society.
Carle said that the Baby Boom generation is made up of around 76 million people, constituting 27% of the total American population of 280 million. In Falls Church the statistic is even more dramatic with Boomers making up 36.8% of the City’s population according to the 2000 census.
In Falls Church, the change in composition of age groups has been dramatic. In 1960 the largest age group was 10-14 years old. In 2000, the largest age group was 45-49 years old, comprising nearly 10% of the population.
Throughout their lifetime, the Boomers have affected society by providing one of the largest and most successful labor forces in American history and when they retire they will become the largest elderly population ever.
To give a perspective on the speed of the aging of America, Carle said that every eight seconds someone turns 55, and he calculated that in the time it takes for him to teach a single class, over 900 people turn 55.
Within the next 10 years, as the first Boomers start to turn 65 and begin to retire, the nation will be faced with a two-fisted crisis of a diminished labor force and an over-taxed health care system.
Carle, said that the retirement of the Baby Boom generation will be compounded by what he terms, “The Collapse of the Three Legged Stool of Health Care.” A change in the three support systems–time, proximity, and energy–that have traditionally provided support for the elderly, according to his view. Here’s how he assesses it:
TIME—Traditionally, when an aged parent starts needing more focused support, a daughter or daughter-in-law has been on hand to provide the needed care. In the past this person has usually had the time to provide whatever the parent needs.
But society has changed significantly, as many women have entered the work force and don’t have the time that they had previously to devote to elder care.
For example, in the City of Falls Church, 68.2% of women are now part of the labor force.
PROXIMITY—The second leg of the stool is the extent to which children live near their parents. In the past, children were the primary care givers for parents and lived nearby to provide that support. But the pattern changed with the Baby Boom generation, and more often than not, children move away from their parents and many families are further distances from each other than in the past.
In Falls Church, much of the City is made up of people who were not born in the City and have moved in recently. According to census information from the Northern Virginia Regional Commission, 60% of City residents were born outside of Virginia, the most in Northern Virginia, and 46.6% of residents moved into Falls Church within the past five years, ranking the City 25th in the nation in this statistic.
ENERGY—With the advances in medical technology the average life span has increased significantly. A century ago, the average life expectancy was only 47.3 years of age, compared to the present life expectancy of 76 years, and the life expectancy of those who have already lived to be 65 is projected to be well into their 80s.
As the elderly are expected to live longer, the children of the elderly will start to age themselves and as a result of their own age-related health problems, will have reduced energy to take care of their parents.
Carle said that the loss of these traditional health care supports is going to put much more pressure on local governments and health institutions to take over services that were normally provided by family.
Local governments are starting to take note of the growing trend. Terri Lynch, the Director of the Office of Aging in Arlington, told the News-Press about the demands that the senior population growth is expected to place on local institutions.
She said that the elderly require services for transportation, home care, and options for life after retirement.
Providing convenient transportation for the elderly is important for the area. Older residents whose eyesight and coordination have suffered from age can create dangers for themselves and for other drivers on the road.
“We are working on how to entice elderly people out of their cars when they have gotten so used to driving,” said Lynch.
“People aren’t willing to give up driving until they can be assured of a convenient alternative,” said Lynch.
For its present senior population, The City of Falls Church has created comprehensive transportation options. Along with the GEORGE system and the standard Metro buses, the City also has volunteer and contracted van pools and has organized taxi vouchers for residents that qualify.
Still another issue is the different needs that the Baby Boom generation requires compared the previous generation.
Lynch pointed to the diets and exercise of the Baby Boom generation which are not common with their elders.
“There are a lot more vegetarians for example than ever before,” said Lynch. She said that services like Meals on Wheels and health care services are starting to look at the different dynamics of the Baby Boom retirees.
Lynch also pointed to options for post-retirement learning and activities that will become necessary for retirees. Arlington, for example, has started to work with George Mason University to provide opportunities for seniors to take classes and go back to college after they retire.
In Falls Church, the Senior Center provides exercise classes for the elderly, as well as a variety of activities like trips to museums, movies, and games.
The most important services for elderly, though, are home care and health care services. While not as necessary for the younger elderly, as people age, cleaning, shopping, bathing, and other activities become more difficult to accomplish on their own.
Lynch said that, for a long time, Arlington had trouble hiring service workers for home health care. She said that across the country these jobs are underpaid.
Along with being underpaid, health care service jobs are the most dangerous in the United States. Continuous strenuous work and frequent accidents often lead to back problems and other workplace injuries.
But despite the danger and pressing need for these services, Lynch said that, on average, Virginia health care workers make two dollars less per hour than the average fast food employee.
Recent increases in pay have enabled Arlington to hire more service workers, but its ability to provide health care products remains hampered.
Lynch said that right now there just isn’t enough money available for these services and as more people start to age, the requirements will increase.
In dealing with its own seniors, the City of Falls Church contracts out to Fairfax County many of its services. While this has succeeded so far, Lynch said that by contracting its services outside the City, the City has less of a handle on the needs of its senior population.
Laurie Duncan, president and owner of the Falls Church-based Choices for Aging, which provides senior services in the City, said that for seniors to travel to Fairfax County creates another level of difficulty for those needing services.
“Sometimes it’s hard to figure out who’s responsible for what services,” said Duncan.
But Christy Lentz from the Falls Church senior center said that she has not seen a disconnect between the seniors in the City and the services that Fairfax provides.
Letha Flippin, human services specialist for Falls Church, said that City has a comprehensive list of services that are available for City residents and has been able to connect seniors to those services.
“We focus on helping people on an individual basis,” said Flippin.
Right now the City has not had any difficulty meeting the needs of its senior population, Flippin said. But she acknowledged that the City is just beginning to look at the effects of their aging Boomers.
The change in size promises to be drastic in the City. The entire senior population in the City over 65 is just a third the size of the Baby Boom population. The City is not alone in coming late to its awareness of this issue. Lynch said that for many within the health services community, “there has been a lot of gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands,” but which hasn’t yet turned into action by local leaders.
Professor Carle said that across the United States, governments have had a “deer in the headlights” response. He said that while there is a growing awareness of the problem, many legislators haven’t taken action.
Lynch said that much of the inaction is due to the fact that while these trends are projected, their impact hasn’t yet been felt on communities throughout the United States.
“It’s hard to adapt to the change until you are face to face with the need,” said Lynch.
Along with the difficulty of predicting future needs, is the problem of deciding the best strategy for dealing with a much larger senior population.
Carle said that one solution is to develop new assisted living options. He said that creating group living for the elderly allows for more efficient use of health care workers and services, because these services can be focused in single locations rather than spread out across a community.
But Lynch said that assisted living is too often seen as one step away from a nursing home rather than a viable living option for healthy seniors.
Virginia has a strict definition of who can be admitted to nursing homes under Medicaid and that has put more pressure on assisted living institutions to take care of more infirmed residents.
For someone to be admitted to a nursing home in the state under Medicaid, that person has to be unable to handle five basic needs, including bathing, dressing, eating, using the bathroom, and moving from a bed to a chair. If able to handle any of these needs on their own they are ineligible for nursing home assistance and must apply for care through assisted living.
This policy has made assisted living more expensive and less desirable for seniors with greater facilities.
Rather than use assisted living, Lynch asserted that home care provided by local jurisdictions, with the help of federal funding, can help people age in place without them having to relocate to group living.
So will the aging of the Baby Boom generation in Falls Church become a full-blown crisis?
Many of the questions about the aging population focus on the effect of large scale retirement on an area. But Lynch said that Baby Boomers in Falls Church might not be retiring as soon as expected.
“A lot of what we’re seeing in this area, particularly among the educated, is that after retirement, they work elsewhere,” said Lynch. Rather than just giving up work, many retirees work as consultants or at other jobs, where they might work fewer hours but remain employed.
Lynch also pointed out that more and more often, employers have started to consider phasing out workers rather than offering full retirement, in order for communities and employees to have a more gradual way of retiring.
Duncan told the News-Press that the wealth and education of the City’s population will help the City age more gracefully. By having access and knowledge of information technology, Duncan said that many of the aging Boomers will be able to take control of their own services through technology and that will help them to overcome feelings of isolation that can come with aging.
This aspect of aging is often overlooked. While home health care provides basic needs, it can’t provide the companionship that many older seniors miss. Carle said that the suicide rate among seniors over 85 is more than twice the rate for teenagers, as a result of senior isolation.
Falls Church is also less likely to suffer from a loss in labor force for the City because of its location and the fact that the majority of Falls Church residents work outside the City.
Carle said that retirement from the Baby Boom population is expected to cause a deficit of 10 million people in the work force nationwide.
But Falls Church is surrounded by a booming New American population, which not only provides a labor force for the City, but also might be expected to fill new health service jobs that could arise in the City as a result of an aging population.
While these aspects might protect the City from a catastrophe as its population continues to age, Duncan said that she doesn’t think that the City has prepared enough for the demographic changes that will happen.
“I don’t think that Falls Church has done a huge amount of planning. That may be OK because those living here have done a lot on their own, but it could also cause some problems,” said Duncan.
Lynch pointed out that while many residents might be privately able to pay for their needs, the City should make sure those services are readily available for the growing numbers of elderly, and that they can provide funding for people who don’t have the same financial advantages.
Even if Falls Church is able to avoid some of the challenges that are facing less affluent areas, it will have to focus on the issues for a long time to come. As housing prices continue to soar, younger families and New American populations, which normally lower the age of an area, are less able to find homes in the City. This would result in what Duncan termed “age gentrification.”
Over the next two issues, the News-Press will look at how the growth that has occurred in the New American population in the area will affect the school system and what impact the current housing market will have on the future demographics of the City.