Coping With Demographic Shifts in F.C.

The face of Falls Church is changing, mirroring two major trends in the United States, the aging of the baby boom generation and the continuing growth of New American populations, specifically Latino groups. These changes promise to have a dramatic effect on the economic and cultural dynamics of America, Northern Virginia, and the City of Falls Church.

Over the next five weeks, the News-Press will be examining these trends, how they’ve shaped the City, what they mean for its future and its relationship with the surrounding Northern Virginia area.

Understanding changes in demographics is paramount to understanding how government, nationally, regionally, and locally, needs to deal with the issues as well as opportunities that come with a dynamic and changing population.

According to a 2003 report by the Brookings Institution titled, “At Home in the Nation’s Capital: Immigration Trends in Metropolitan Washington” the Washington Metropolitan area has become the seventh largest gateway for immigration in the United States.

The New American population has made up nearly half of the overall population growth in the region. The recent influx is particularly dramatic, with 47.5% of the total New American population arriving within the past 10 years.

At the same time, the population of the nation is aging rapidly. Despite the fact that immigrant populations tend to have higher fertility rates and be of a younger age, the nation is still growing steadily older, as the post-World War II generation, the Baby Boom generation, is nearing retirement.

In a graphic example of the aging of the population, George Mason University professor Andrew Carle, an expert on the Baby Boom generation, said that in the time it takes for him to teach a single class, over 900 Americans turn 55.

These two trends bring with them a lot of questions for local and national leaders to answer. How can communities create a stable economy and culture while still being flexible enough to deal with changing communities?

What challenges will the aging population create for health care infrastructure?

What consequences will the choices about residential and commercial development have on both of these trends?

So what does this mean for the City of Falls Church?

While Falls Church has seen above average diversity growth on the national scale, in one of the most dynamic regions in the country Falls Church lags well behind the majority of its Northern Virginia neighbors, with only Loudon County having a smaller minority population as a percentage of the total.

The Northern Virginia Regional Commission, a census organization for Northern Virginia, recently released its 2004 data book in which the difference between Falls Church and its neighbors is highlighted.

While the Latino population of Northern Virginia has grown by 264% over the past 20 years, Falls Church has only seen a 109% increase in this population, the smallest in the Northern Virginia area.

On the other hand, Falls Church is at the opposite end of the scale in regards to its aging population. In information compiled from the 2000 census, the Falls Church population has the highest median age in the region.

From these statistics it would be easy to characterize the City as a predominately Caucasian and increasingly aged population, but that characterization doesn’t take into account the small size of the City and the diversity of its neighbors, which make the day to day feel of the City more diverse.

Ken Billingsly of the Northern Virginia Regional Commission talked about the effect that the growing diversity is having on the Northern Virginia area. Previously considered bed-room communities for the District of Columbia, Billingsly said that the inner core suburbs like Arlington and Alexandria now have more in common with cities like Manhattan than with conventional suburbs.

The growing diversity has brought in new cultures, new economic opportunities as well as new challenges for these cities in adapting to the new population.

In contrast to the surrounding area, Falls Church has one of the most homogenous populations. Alexandria has a 46.3% minority population, Arlington a 39.6% minority population, Fairfax County 35.6%, while Falls Church has a 20.4% minority population.

While Falls Church has seen less growth than other Northern Virginia areas, the City has seen substantial change. From 1980 to 2000, the City saw a 10% increase in its minority population. The Latino population alone accounted for 65% of the City’s population growth over the past two decades.

Meanwhile, in 2004 Falls Church had the highest median age of any Northern Virginia area at 39.6 years of age.

Professor Carle pointed out in an interview with the News-Press some of the challenges that come with an aging population. He said that the national discussion about employment has ignored the effect the retirement of the baby boomers will have on the work force. Carle said that within the next 20 years, as people start to retire, there will be 10 million more jobs nationally than there will be people to fill them.

Also, as people age, the nation’s health system will have to adapt as many more people will require services and care.

The combination of the two demographic shifts in Falls Church is a big part of questions about what the direction of the City will be. At present the City sits on the brink of dramatic change and is considering how and which way it will go.

Within the next two decades, as many of the Falls Church residents retire, without new population growth the community will start to feel the effects of less and less of its population working.

Without an influx of young and diverse people, there is a chance that the presently vibrant culture of Falls Church will start to develop in to an increasingly isolated and elderly area.

The following articles in this exclusive News-Press series will delve more deeply into the specific issues. But before focusing on the future changes it is important to look at the events that have lead up to the present City dynamic and how it has become a unique and separate entity within Northern Virginia.

The City of Falls Church has for a long time deliberately set itself off as an island. Even before it was identified in 1948 as a city of the second class, making it an independent jurisdiction, Falls Church had long been on the path to setting itself apart as distinct politically, demographically and economically.

In Falls Church: A Village Revisited, by Bradley E. Gernand and Nan Netherton, the authors trace the development of the City from the earliest site of Western habitation in the city in 1699.

When it was settled, the nearby “Little Falls” on the Potomac River was the furthest location one could navigate up the river, and was a prime fishing spot for the native population of the area. The village, which grew up around the area was largely agricultural.

In 1734 the Church at Little Falls was founded. Eventually renamed The Falls Church, it was rebuilt as a brick structure in 1769 where it stands to this day in the heart of the present City of Falls Church.

During the Civil War the church served as a hospital for both sides of the conflict.

After the Civil War, the City started to grow into a cohesive community and in 1875 was named a township. The change in nomenclature allowed Falls Church partial control over its taxes, and other public facilities.

In 1887 Falls Church began to become isolated from the surrounding area. Town Leaders persuaded the Commonwealth of Virginia to annex to Fairfax County the section of the Town called “the colored settlement.”

A gerrymandering strategy to swing the town more heavily in favor of the Democratic Party, since at the time black voters tended to vote Republican. The strategy had the effect of shifting the demographics of the town to being predominately white and Democratic.

Falls Church experienced another kind of separation from the surrounding area as a result of the economic climate during the Great Depression.

As the rest of the area felt the economic devastation of the Depression, most of the citizens of Falls Church were federal employees and weren’t as effected by the economic down turn. The result was that, while parts of Virginia were struggling, Falls Church retained a relatively vibrant local economy.

When Falls Church became a city and officially took control of its school system in the 1949-1950 school year, the community immediately made education a top priority. To this day the school system remains a priority. In the 2005 proposed Falls Church City budget, school funding accounts for nearly 41% of all expenditures, the largest city expense.

While the City is known for being politically progressive in its politics, it has had a complicated relationship with its minority populations.

While a large portion of the black population was separated from Falls Church in 1887, at the same time, respected black businessman Frederick Forrest Foote, Jr., served as a councilman from 1880 to 1889.

In another example of a conflicted response to African American rights, in 1915 the Town Council passed a resolution to create segregated districts within the town limits. In response, the African American community created the NAACP chapter for Falls Church and neighboring vicinity, under the leadership of Joseph Tinner.

Despite the group’s resistance to the proposal, the ordinance passed. While the ordinance was never enforced, it wasn’t technically repealed until 1999 by the City Council.

While the incident highlights the conflict over minority populations in Falls Church, it also underlines the tradition of civic activism that the city has always fostered. In 1962 the City earned The All-America City Award from the National Municipal League and Look Magazine because of the community awareness and involvement.

But when Virginia started to desegregate its schools, Falls Church was behind the curve. In 1961, two years after neighboring Arlington County, Falls Church desegregated its schools. Until that time the City had been paying tuition to send its students to schools in Fairfax County and Manassas.

Thus, throughout its history, Falls Church consistently identified itself as different from the surrounding Virginia area.

Generally, Falls Church population has been politically progressive, while at the same time remaining cautious in regards to its own development.

Falls Church has been slow in taking part in the economic boom of the surrounding area, beginning in Seven Corners in 1956, and later, Tyson’s Corner. Only after seeing the City’s economic structures start to dry up did the City’s leaders take action to develop Falls Church’s own economic base, now the area of West Broad St.

While the cautious reaction to area change has, at times, slowed its development, it has also put the City in the position of being able to see the effect that the development has had on its neighbors, and measure its needs in a more calculated way based on the current demographic trends.

This series of articles will document four major factors in the dynamic of the community. The first article will look at the effect that the increase in New Americans has had on areas around Falls Church and the changes that Falls Church is experiencing. It will discuss the impacts on the economy, social services, and cultural dynamics.

The second article will talk about what the aging of the population means to the City of Falls Church and how the City is developing in order to work with an older population.

The third article will talk about the effect of immigrant populations on school systems. It will look at how other schools have developed a strategy for this change and how the City plans to deal with their own growth.

The final article will focus on the influence that residential development has on the demographics of a population, and how providing affordable housing will be essential to meeting the challenges of the City’s future.