Nicholas F. Benton's White House Report

The primary significance of John Kerry's selection of John Edwards as his running mate lies in its implication that the Democrats are optimistic about their ability to win some Southern states in November. This is big news for those who are looking for telltale signs of insider odds on the outcome.

While resisting cynicism in saying so, we live in an age when both parties are deeply invested in playing the Electoral College game from an early stage. That's why, among other things, the antiquated Electoral College system will never be tossed out, as unfair as it is to the individual voter (which, ultimately, is all of us).

The parties run their polls and carve out their turf. As much as the candidates appeal to us all for their support, by now they've charted their course to November in terms of the states where they are going to focus their energies and dollars.

Things could change, of course, but probably not that much. More than ever before, the pollsters on both sides tell us, the nation is hard wired and divided. Eighty percent of Americans will never cross over to the other side, 40% being Democrats and 40% Republicans. That leaves fewer "undecideds" or "swing votes" than we've ever had since polling became a weird science.

So, there are states that you might as well, if you are a Democrat, concede right now. We can all guess what a few of them might be. At the same time, there are others that are pretty solidly locked in the other way.

As for the "swing states," those that could go either way (like Florida, lest we forget), there are those that are "possibles" and those that are more genuinely in play.

Candidates and their public campaigns will never concede these realities, but it's how things are perceived by the professionals operating outside the Matrix.

Well, so, there are no great fresh insights in this rehearsal, except perhaps to appreciate the choice of Edwards in light of it.

Except for Florida, it might have been the decision in the Kerry ranks to write off the South for November and concentrate firepower in the states that Gore carried in 2000. Fight for and add Florida to the Gore total and you win, plain and simple.

But the "Edwards factor" belies the fact that the Kerry people are looking for more than that. They expect not only his youthful good looks, energy and vitality to make up for Kerry's shortcomings on all three counts, but for his quaint slight Southern drawl to set Dixie a-swooning.

The campaign's internal polls must be indicating this can translate into victories in key Southern states lost to Gore in 2000, including Gore's own Tennessee.

This has got to be good news for Democrats, including those of us in Virginia who might see more of Kerry and Edwards in the coming months than we've seen of Democratic presidential slates in many years.

But there's a double edge to this. It all could mean that the Kerry campaign not only can, but feels it must, carry at least a portion of the South.

That would be the case if its internal polls indicate the campaign could be threatened with losing some important ground that Gore held in 2000, including in some big state like, say, New York or California.

There could be a little more method to the madness of the GOP choosing New York City as the site of its August nominating convention than some might have considered, especially if it becomes the stage for Cheney to bow and step aside and Bush to name Rudolph Giuliani as his new running mate.

While Cheney's influence on the current administration would not wane, the baggage of his health issues and questions about his Halliburton ties would be lifted from the campaign, and a national hero of 9/11 join the slate.

This could throw New York State into serious "swing state" status, and also destabilize California, where Giuliani's appeal could complement and draw on that of the Terminator's success there.

The Kerry camp could have taken a head-to-head approach to this scenario by choosing New York Senator Hillary Clinton to face off against Giuliani, but figured that would distract from the larger campaign and make it vulnerable on its Southern flank. It instead chose a flanking action of its own, counting on Edwards to force the GOP to divert attention to the South, where folks might not be too keen on a moderate northeastern big city mayor.