Oxford Poll's Troubling News Of Iraqi Attitudes About US

The Bush administration in the U.S. and the Blair government in Britain are deluding themselves if they think the terrorist attack in Spain last week caused the subsequent electoral overthrow of a regime that participated in the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.

There is no doubt that the unprecedented outpouring of grief and anger over the terrorist attacks, and the more than 200 lives of innocent civilians claimed, contributed to the public turnout on election day.

But the public in Spain was already overwhelmingly opposed to the Iraq operation, and to Spain's participation. Terrorist attacks or no, there was strong evidence that the only important ally of Bush and Blair in the Iraqi fiasco would be soundly defeated. What happened in Spain was not, as some contend, a victory for al Qaeda and terrorism so much as it was a defeat for the Bush administration and its heavy-handed coercion of the ousted Spanish government.

As one pundit put it a few days ago, Bush's Iraq invasion has, indeed, achieved a regime change. In Spain.

But that may only be the beginning. Seeing beyond the smoke and tears of the horrible events that preceded the Spanish election, the electoral outcome there may be a harbinger of things to come in the U.S. in 2004 and Great Britain in 2005.

Indeed, the new prime minister-elect in Spain, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, suggested as much himself in a radio interview Monday. "What happened now that the Socialist government in Spain has taken power will have a great impact in the November elections in North America in the duel between Bush and Kerry," he said.

Zapatero is also not afraid to assert loudly from his new high-profile bully pulpit as he did throughout his campaign, that Bush lied to the global community as a pretext for invading Iraq. He vowed to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq unless brought under United Nations direction soon.

Bush's so-called "coalition" involved in the invasion of Iraq has lost one of its most important elements. It will only escalate trends, globally and in the U.S., to speak out against the invasion at the ballot box.

Even in Iraq, itself, the public is deeply divided and in no way decidedly supports what the Bush administration has done. According to the first scientific poll conducted inside that country since the U.S.-led occupation, commissioned by a number of news organizations, the Iraqi people are split right down the middle on attitudes toward the U.S.-led action. The poll reports that 41.8 percent of the Iraqi people believe the U.S.-led forces "liberated" Iraq, and 41.2% believe that the U.S. "humiliated" Iraq. The Oxford Research International, Ltd., conducted the poll and it was published by the BBC.

While the poll shows that a majority feels that Iraq is a better place now than before the invasion, it was not by that much, and this should come as no surprise, at least for now. No one has ever claimed that Saddam Hussein was anything but a brutal and repressive dictator. Given that, it could be considered surprising if any less than 99% of the Iraqis don't think things are better now. Given that, it is enlightening to see, according to the Oxford poll, that only 56.5% now think things are better than under Hussein. Over 42% think either there has been no change or that matters are actually worse.

The poll indicates that a clear majority of Iraqis now want the U.S. forces out of the country, although most say not until a new government is in place.

Asked whether or not they support the presence of Coalition forces in Iraq, only 39.5% of respondents said yes and 50.9% said no. Among the no's, 31.3% said they "strongly oppose" the presence of the forces.

This is a serious blow to the Bush administration's attempt to paint the invasion as a liberation hailed by a grateful and appreciative populace. But perhaps the most damning elements of the extensive survey are the questions asking which entities ought to have the biggest role in the future of Iraq. In almost every question, the percentage of people who indicated the U.S. should have the leading role ranged between 3% and 8%.

Asked which society, or political system, should be the role model for Iraq's reconstruction, only. 6.5% of Iraqis favored the U.S. Although the majority wants a democracy, with a strong emphasis on individual freedom, only a tiny minority feels the U.S. is any kind of a "beacon of hope and liberty" for them.

This is a deeply troubling poll, painting a picture of popular attitudes in Iraq far different than that portrayed by the Bush administration as well as by the major U.S. media. The popular conception that the average citizen in Iraq is happy with what's happened, and that only the hardened terrorists, remnants of Hussein's government or certain religious sects are not, is patently false.

It is now the task of the media, which after all commissioned this survey for its own use, to begin reporting more accurately on "man in the street" attitudes from inside Iraq.

To Contact the Author, e-mail nfbenton@fcnp.com