You have to give President Bush credit for his proven talent at dodging fights that he knew would cost him politically.
After the White House initially opposed the creation of an independent commission to determine "the facts" of the Iraqi war intelligence fiasco, the president eventually caved in and endorsed the idea.
After Bush originally opposed the appointment of an independent panel to look into the prelude to the 9-11 attacks, he eventually caved in and endorsed the idea.
Then when the commission asked for 60 more days to finish its work, the White House opposed that. Now, in the face of bipartisan demands, Bush has again caved.
It's the sober second thought that overcomes the White House's initial negative impulse.
In each case, the president acceded to bipartisan demands in Congress. To do otherwise, would have cost him politically since the administration would have appeared to be covering up.
The about-face on the Iraq commission came after members of Congress heard David Kay -- who headed the U.S. weapons search team in Iraq -- testify that Saddam Hussein's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction was simply non-existent.
Bush and his administration had cited that arsenal as a reason why a U.S. military invasion was necessary.
While going along with the commission idea -- details are expected later this week -- the president has come up with a way to blur the Iraq issue and shroud it with fuzzy irrelevance.
The commission not only should investigate the runup to the Iraq attack, Bush said. It also should study intelligence about the broader problem of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, as well as the particulars about what U.S. intelligence agencies knew about efforts by Libya, North Korea and Iran and to acquire those weapons.
This is a recipe for obfuscation of the central question: Did the Bush administration falsify or exaggerate the Iraqi threat in order to justify an invasion?
Since he came into office, Bush has made no secret of his messianic urge to depose Saddam Hussein. "Regime change" was his goal from the start.
All he needed was an excuse -- the scenario about the weapons of mass destruction would do nicely. And his hardline advisers were only too happy to supply information that the president and other administration officials seized upon for an excuse.
Except that reason has turned out to be a spectacular loser.
Now the president is seeking cover. The commission gambit is a well-known Washington fixture for presidents in trouble. Sometimes these panels even turn out to be valuable in helping public understanding.
Meanwhile, a lot of backtracking is going on. Secretary of State Colin Powell says, in retrospect, that he doesn't know whether he would have recommended an invasion if he had been told Iraq had no stockpiles of illegal weapons. Now he tells us.
Bush's handpicked panel probably won't report until next year, buying him time to get past Election Day, Nov. 2.
It remains to be seen how much cooperation the administration will give the new commission. His administration has already demonstrated its ability to stonewall the 9-11 commission. But in the face of rising criticism from Congress and families of 9-11 victims, the president defused that budding controversy by agreeing to extend the life of the panel.
Bush's ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, also has been forced by his own domestic politics to investigate British intelligence agencies for their flawed intelligence about Iraq's weapons. Blair had warned that Iraq's lethal weapons could be launched in "45 minutes."
Neither Bush nor Blair wants these inquiries to delve into whether their policies got it wrong and led us to war. Rather, just keep the questions focused on the failure of their spies -- it's safer that way for those whose political careers are on the line.
(Helen Thomas can be reached at 202-263-6400 or at the e-mail address hthomas@hearstdc.com).
Copyright New York Times 2004. All rights reserved. This copyrighted material may not be published, broadcast or redistributed in any manner.
