Nicholas F. Benton's White House Report

It was suggested by a regular reader that I review my predictions in my column of Jan. 2, 2003 entitled, "Picture the World One Year from Today," to see how well, or poorly, I did. It looks to me like I was on the money on all the basics.

It's hard to fathom that just a year ago the Iraq invasion was still in the planning stages and no one had yet heard of Howard Dean. Yet my column called into question Bush's dubious allegation that "weapons of mass destruction" in Iraq required a military intervention. "The president's credibility will be called into question," I forecast.

Here we are a year later, and still no sign of any "weapons of mass destruction." As for the president's credibility issues, this week's revelations by former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill will resonate throughout the coming presidential election year. Not only did the president lie about Iraq, but he is a dolt. He's an idiot who barely participates in his own cabinet meetings.

On another point I made a year ago, over the course of the entire past year, the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates a single iota. That's because, as Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan has indicated more than once, there remains a grave concern for any economy's worst fear: deflation.

The latest unemployment numbers confirm those fears are still justified. A handful of new jobs were created, way below the administration's own projections, in December, and many people fell off the unemployment roles simply because they stopped looking for jobs. This "jobless recovery," as they call it, is symptomatic of a dangerous deflationary trend. Meanwhile, we continue to pile up record deficits and the dollars is dipping to new lows overseas.

Bush's is fueling the fire with his Walmart Relief Act proposal for undocumented workers. Driving wages down drives down demand and drives down prices. Deflation.

As for U.S.-Russian relations, they're far more strained than a year ago. Russia did not go along with the Iraq invasion and now has been cut off from access to U.S. reconstruction contracts. Internally, matters remain highly volatile in Russia, which still has far more nuclear warheads at its disposal than anyone else, besides the U.S., on the planet.

Concerning the conditions leading into this presidential election year, as I forecast a year ago, I suggested hints, but who could have foreseen exactly the explosive emergence of such strident opposition to Bush and all he stands for in the unfolding Democratic campaigns?

Remember the legacy of Bush-Democrat relations just a year ago at this time. First were the unsavory Bush-Gore love-fests, also known as "debates," in the 2000 election campaign. Remember how cozy they were with each other? Then there was the Democrats' disgusting acquiescence to Bush's war resolution in the fall of 2002.

But, beginning with Howard Dean, now all the leading Democrats for president are bashing Bush with a fervor, including for his Iraq policy, not seen in years. And don't forget, they're doing it because that's what they see their constituencies want them to do.

Therefore, weigh any Bush "approval rating" polls against what at least half the nation is demanding of its political leaders now. The angry attacks on Bush will only intensify as the Democratic field narrows, and especially as the Democratic nominee emerges. That's how the Bush "popularity factor" manifested itself in 2003.

Osama bin Laden remains at large. Brave U.S. soldiers remain at great risk of deadly guerilla acts in Iraq. The Bush administration continues its abuse of power in rewarding cronies in the construction and oil industries with billion dollar contracts without fair competition for government contracts, and escalates its abuse of civil liberties in the name of "the war on terror."

As a final note, O'Neill's indictment of the Bush administration should convince many more Americans in the coming months that, apart from the personal leadership deficiencies of Bush, his administration engaged in systematic, premeditated lying to the American people, America's allies and the world about its motives for invading Iraq at such enormous cost to lives, alliances and American taxpayers. This is a scandal as big, if not far bigger, than Iran-Contra.

E-Mail the author at nfbenton@fcnp.com.